The Current Media Meme is Pure
Nonsense
Just before the Republican National Convention a
mainstream media (MSM) narrative began to take shape. The false
meme stated that Obama had the momentum and the necessary support to easily win
reelection. Soon another feature was
added to the construct, i.e. Obama’s reelection was inevitable. Too often this narrative was supported by selective
polling data that underpinned the stories and ‘made’ them true. The stories said Obama was inevitable because
Romney was dangerous, cared only for the rich, could not empathize with
ordinary people, wasn’t likeable, lacked needed experience, intelligence and even
the temperament to be the president. And
good grief, he selected Paul Ryan as his running mate, thus the conclusion
became obvious…Q,E.D. The result of this
tragedy (not just a mistake, but a catastrophe, a tragedy), if Romney were to
be elected, it would mean no healthcare, no Medicare, no abortions and an
extremist supreme court. This construct
was not just reported but pushed by CBS, NBC, ABC, The New York Times, Washington
Post, LA Times et al.
This meme aside, can any candidate
cruise?...Can Obama?...Can Romney? Is
Obama’s reelection inevitable? Let’s take
a moment and assess some of the issues. President
Obama has important advantages. He is
the incumbent and Americans resist retiring an incumbent without strong
reasons. Obama has the ‘bully pulpit’
and is very willing to use its power and reach.
Further, Obama and his advisers have very few reservations about
spinning, dissembling and outright dishonesty in their efforts to gain victory. And most notably he has a blatantly fawning, biased
and collusive
MSM championing his reelection.
Nevertheless, Obama faces numerous challenges:
- An 8.1% unemployment rate, the exit of 368,000 job seekers from the marketplace, and a miniscule addition of 96.000 jobholders during the past month. America has 12.5 million people unemployed, 23.1 million under or unemployed, and the lowest labor participation rate in 30 years at 63.5%…a terrible and intractable situation. (source-USBLS)
- An economy that is growing at a rate of 1.7% as measured by GDP. Many economists are expecting even slower growth (1.0 to 1.5%) or a contraction (0 to -1.2%) in the immediate future. Both the consumer and small businessman lack the confidence to spend and/or invest. Both are being further constrained by record high fuel costs…in essence a growing regressive ‘tax’. Finally, yearly deficits exceeding $1.2 trillion are now usual and a National debt exceeding $16 trillion continues to grow (US Commerce Dept.).
- An overwhelming number of likely voter (LV) polls show his approval ratings at 45-46%. An approval rating below 50% on Election Day has historically meant that 80% of the undecided vote will go to the challenger...usually resulting in the incumbent’s defeat.
- Many women are no longer supporting him. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows a decline in female support from 57% to 47%. as do others polls with similar results. Rasmussen, Gallup, Reuters and other polls also show erosion in support among Hispanics, seniors and blacks…small reductions in each voting bloc translates into millions of votes.
- The uncertainty of how 2.7 million workforce dropouts (in 2012) will vote, and how the 8.3 million job seekers who quit looking since Jan. 2009 will vote. The legal impact of sequestration also looms since by law defense employers must notify workers if they are in danger of layoff. Massive reductions in the defense budget could trigger up to 2 million layoff notices just before the election.
- A small (very small) list of liberal columnists and journalists are becoming increasingly disenchanted and may be dampening already low Democrat enthusiasm by voicing their concerns. For example, Maureen Dowd has sarcastically stated her displeasure in the pages of The New York Times, “Playing Now: Hail to Us Chiefs”. (This is a must read article…it’s a hoot).
Mitt
Romney does not have any special advantages due to
office, yet he has an unusual opportunity.
Since WWII, the economy has never been so crippled. Obama was handed a major economic problem, but
his recovery efforts/plan have further debilitated the economy for a multitude
of reasons. In addition, Obama’s lack of
a coherent energy plan has seen fuel prices skyrocket and the recent violence in the Middle-East has presented
yet another focal point. Still Romney faces
a number of daunting issues that encompass:
- The need to talk convincingly about both the economy and ideology…the tenets of being a Republican/conservative i.e. limited government, low taxes, personal responsibility, the rule of law etc. must be presented. Americans self-define as conservative/moderate and represent a majority of more than 2 to 1 over those that say they are liberal/progressive.
- Placing more emphasis on the economy, unemployment, debt, deficits and entitlements using an expanded plan. More specificity is required; his 5 point plan is a start, yet to dislodge Obama he must broaden the plan and discuss direct economic fixes in greater detail.
- Talking about the consequences and negative effects of Obamacare, the $831 billion Stimulus Plan, and the Dodd-Frank legislation. He must also continuously decode for the voters Obama’s word usage such as ‘investment’ and a ‘balanced plan'.
- Maintaining his base voter’s enthusiasm, a major current advantage. Then develop effective methods to reduce supporter concerns, even panic in the face of media attacks… model ways to tactically diminish MSM collusive and relentless bias.
- Leveraging his increasing support with women, Hispanics/Latinos, seniors and the Jewish community.
- Holding his own in the debates to offset the narrative he can expect from the MSM after the debates.
- Insuring his surrogates understand polling (it’s weaknesses) and the differences in accuracy from one poll type to another.
Given
the above no candidate can cruise…since
this election is still within an eyelash.
The MSM story line of momentum and
inevitability has been supported by selectively
cited polls.
Of late, Gallup’s daily job approval poll is often cited. The Gallup poll is an ‘All’ (A) voter
poll. All polls are based on questioning
adults including aliens, felons and many who are not registered to vote. One half or more of those surveyed will not
vote. More to the issue, of the half
that can’t or won’t vote, 75% would have voted democrat (based on many
studies). All (A) polls favor the
democrat by 7-9%. Registered voter (RV)
polls favor Democrats by 2-4%. RV polls query
voters who are registered to vote. The
difference between those questioned and those voting is material. Historically, only 70-75% of those registered
actually vote and 66% of those not voting would have voted democrat. The bottom line is that likely voter (LV)
polls are worth considering and then only carefully. Polling organizations expend significant
additional effort and money to produce LV data.
However, if a realistic turnout model
is not used LV polls will be inaccurate. Currently many LV polls are based on 2008
turnout models
and are inaccurate. Also note that famous
does not=accurate…e.g. Gallup is famous yet has had a
somewhat checkered record in recent elections.
The use of polls can mislead
due to consolidation of data or the use of averaging. Real Clear Politics (RCP) average polls are frequently
mentioned
since updates occur daily with new data. The RCP polls have two major downsides. First A, RV and LV polls are averaged together. Using RCP’s general election
poll of September 9th the average result (of RV & LV polls)
equaled 48.0% Obama, and 46.0% Romney.
Adjusting the RV polls to correct for the Democrat bias changes the RCP
outcome to 46.5% Obama and 46.0% Romney, a significant variance. Recent CNN polls are ‘combination’ polls meaning
partly A, RV, and LV based on the question asked and thus are very difficult to
decipher.
In view of the forgoing, an
objective observer can only deduce
that neither candidate…Obama or Romney can “cruise” and that Barack Obama’s
inevitable victory is a fairy tale construct of the MSM…so stay tuned…either
man can prevail.
